In theory, it doesn't matter what the weather forecast is. If you were on an extended outing, you take the weather as it comes. If you make plans more than two weeks ahead of time, it's sure to rain. In fact, an elderly gentleman I once knew who was from Glasgow by the name of Charlie Storrie, said the way you predict the weather in Scotland was to look out the window at the nearest mountain. If you can see it, it's going to rain. If you can't see it, it's already raining.
So basically the weather forecast is immaterial. But the weather isn't. My favorite places to go are mostly in Shenandoah National Park less than a hundred miles from home (at least to the entrance). If the weather is bad enough in the winter, like if there was a heavy snow, the park or parts of it will close. It can snow at the higher altitudes and rain at the lower altitudes up there. But the snow makes the trip much more interesting. I was also up there one time and had just returned to my car after an overnight trip. The morning had turned very cold and it had started drizzling with freezing rain. A ranger came around before I left and told me the park was closing and that I had to leave. So these days, I tend to plan on alternate destinations up there and I check the park's website to see what the current conditions are.