Thanks
@Michael_x . My own model is semi-empirical, and based on the rate of reduction in percentage increase in daily mortality seen in Italy.
Bad news: Daily deaths may reach ~1150 (maybe more, maybe less), next Saturday, 10-04-2020..
Good news: They should then start to fall, and the cumulative total by the 17th my model predicts agrees with Prof Ferguson's estimate of ~20,000 with social distancing measures in place. As always with models, regard this as a tentative attempt at prediction, not a done deal. Time will tell.
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