TinTin
Thru Hiker
It would be good if you could add an actual line/skyscrapers over time so we can grow/lose confidence as the days pass by.
The Covid-19 Thread
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Bill Gates in 2015 https://www.gatesnotes.com/Health/We-Are-Not-Ready-for-the-Next-Epidemic
Michael_x
Section Hiker
Rog Tallbloke
Thru Hiker
I should have specified the metric I was referring to, which is mortality. Here's UK and Sweden cumulative deaths. No sign of a steeper curve from Sweden yet.
TinTin
Thru Hiker
@Rog Tallbloke do you know where I can find daily stats going back to the start for my area ie North Yorkshire. I want to plot our local curve. I've kept looking each day but hadn't considered that it might be a good idea to plot the trend. Now I'd like to!
Rog Tallbloke
Thru Hiker
Don't know. Daily info for all counties here: https://www.itv.com/news/2020-03-11...-cases-in-your-area-with-our-interactive-map/
Michael_x
Section Hiker
The UK is not a good choice of comparison. Try plotting against a Scandinavian lockdown country, such as Finland, etc. Alternately against a country where lockdown was done properly like Taiwan.
Or just scroll to the bottom of the link and look at the figures and graphs for Sweden and neighbouring countries. If mortality is your metric then of the five Scandinavian countries Sweden Is way ahead in deaths per 1,000,000 of the population.
https://www.svt.se/datajournalistik/the-spread-of-the-coronavirus/
Edited 06:35 6th April to add a static image for posterity since the Swedes keep updating their numbers.
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Rog Tallbloke
Thru Hiker
So if UK hasn't done lockdown properly we'll be heading closer to the 500,000 deaths used to frighten us into accepting a lockdown then?
The narrative is looking shaky.
The narrative is looking shaky.
Michael_x
Section Hiker
LOL, best we stop before the thread gets nuked. After all folk can check out the body count on that link for themselves, etc, and make their own mind up.
Rog Tallbloke
Thru Hiker
Logic is a guided missile.
Rog Tallbloke
Thru Hiker
Boris has gone into hospital 'for tests'.
Here's hoping he's out again soon.
Here's hoping he's out again soon.
Michael_x
Section Hiker
Absolutely. It would be an absolute disaster if he did badly.
Daymoth
Section Hiker
To me that sounds quite sensible considering italy and spains trend. Death rate starts slowing down after about 3,5 weeks of lockdown. Italy still hasnt reached the peak but they might be reaching it this week ( number 5).
The one to follow now is China. Difficult to know the veracity of their reporting but I hope they at least report a significant % to understand post-lockdown behaviours.
EM-Chiseller
Thru Hiker
Mother in law is the same... Just cause she's 74 and still climbing ladders, working, horse riding etc... She thinks she'll be fine... It's slowly sinking in, but we all are scared for her
Rog Tallbloke
Thru Hiker
I've managed to nudge my mum into a single weekly trip to the supermarket. She's still going to the corner shop for a daily newspaper though. 
Enzo
Thru Hiker
My mum is driving to all her favourite dog walking spots rather than use the field behind her house. Offering to look after the kids etc.
My sister has persuaded her to get food deliveries. She doesn't seem to get it's not just the risk to her and my very vulnerable step father, but if she spreads it it adds to the risk the doctors and nurses in hospitals are put under and for me that's totally unacceptable.
My sister has persuaded her to get food deliveries. She doesn't seem to get it's not just the risk to her and my very vulnerable step father, but if she spreads it it adds to the risk the doctors and nurses in hospitals are put under and for me that's totally unacceptable.
EM-Chiseller
Thru Hiker
Daymoth
Section Hiker
This is my main issue with the whole initial downplaying of the situation. The message was that only those with simptoms were contagious, only those vulnerable were at risk, and that we should all get it and it will be fine. Now trying to change that perception is not that easy.
dovidola
Thru Hiker
My mother is locked up with advanced dementia. Her passing now would be a merciful release.
A few years ago she would have been a complete liability.
I was about to 'Like' that comment, but realise it wouldn't look quite right!
However, your point is well made and courageous.
dovidola
Thru Hiker
I'm no scientist, but it's natural to want to understand what's going on.
I think there's little disagreement about how this disease is spread, and about how it can develop within an individual. Modern science is good at answering the 'How?' question.
What interests me more is why.
Why, within a group of infected people, do some develop symptoms which others don't? Why do those symptoms vary from individual? Why did a particular individual die? And another not?
I'm looking for an answer somewhat deeper than "their immune system was stronger/weaker" - again, why?
My fear is that unless we focus more on the 'Why?' question, we will carry on from medical crisis to medical crisis, incrementally more serious as modern medicine carries on getting better at keeping us alive for longer and with more ailments.
I think there's little disagreement about how this disease is spread, and about how it can develop within an individual. Modern science is good at answering the 'How?' question.
What interests me more is why.
Why, within a group of infected people, do some develop symptoms which others don't? Why do those symptoms vary from individual? Why did a particular individual die? And another not?
I'm looking for an answer somewhat deeper than "their immune system was stronger/weaker" - again, why?
My fear is that unless we focus more on the 'Why?' question, we will carry on from medical crisis to medical crisis, incrementally more serious as modern medicine carries on getting better at keeping us alive for longer and with more ailments.
WilliamC
Thru Hiker
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ng-down-to-genes-or-viral-load-scientists-say
If it is due to viral loading, that is at least something the individual can have some influence over, though not such good news for health workers.
If it's genetic, you have to pray you've got the best genes.
More detail on viral loading here.
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